Contradiction and Ambivalence

As @MarkJBallard reports

Government departments have been cancelling freelance IT contractors supplied through SMEs and giving their interim staff business to Capita under orders from the Cabinet Office's Efficiency and Reform Group (ERG), in apparent contradiction of government SME policy. (Computer Weekly, 24 June 2011)

When the observed behaviour of a large complex entity seems to contradict its stated goals and policies, we may perhaps infer the existence of some contrary (possibly unstated) goals and policies that override or interfere with the stated ones. This is a classic application of the POSIWID principle.

In this case, however, the Cabinet Office defends the observed behaviour by appealing to a different set of stated goals and policies, relating to cost-cutting. Nevertheless, a representative of one of the affected SMEs suggests that short-term cost-cutting is likely to cost more in the longer-term, as a result of reduced competition.

There are also counter-claims that Capita is merely acting as a gatekeeper, passing on 80% of the business to SMEs, thus possibly contradicting the contradiction.

Thus the interpretation of purpose depends on interpretation of evidence as well as variation in timescale. Applying the POSIWID principle to a politically charged situation like this can often be subject to strong disagreement between stakeholders.

What Alcohol Content Reveals About The Purpose of Wine

According to @felixsalmon (via @TimHarford)

"People like to think of themselves as sophisticates ... In the case of wine, they like the idea of buying something grown-up, with a relatively modest amount of alcohol."

But as Felix argues, there is a growing trend of wine producers deliberately understating the alcohol content on the labels. (The law permits a margin of error, and the wine producers exploit this.) There's an obvious motive for them - if consumers use the labels on the bottles as a guide to regulate their alcohol consumption, then this will result in people drinking more.

But why would the wine producers want to put more alcohol into the wine in the first place, and then lie to the consumers about it? This only makes commercial sense if this is what a significant number of consumers really (unconsciously) want.

As Felix concludes, consumers love to be lied to.

Felix Salmon, Why is wine getting hotter? (Reuters, 21 June 2011)

The Purpose of Conspiracy Theories

#BGT Prompted by recent allegations suggesting that "Britain's Got Talent" (which she refers to as "Simon Cowell's talentless contest") was fixed, Marina Hyde suggests that we concoct conspiracy theories in order to excuse our twisted fascination with things (Guardian 3 June 2011).

"So what are we to make of people's need to believe in conspiracy theories such as the one floated above? In his famous essay on conspiracy theories in America, the historian Richard Hofstadter noted that a significant part of these tales is psychological projection – people ascribe their own worst traits to the imagined enemy, thus relieving themselves of various kinds of responsibility. And so with an increasingly savvy reality TV audience, who understand that Cowell always wins, yet watch in ever greater numbers and have to find a way of elevating their involvement into something more than a mug's game. Both fans and haters need to develop outlandish conspiracy theories because they can't actually believe millions upon millions are genuinely in thrall to this stuff."

Richard Hofstadter "The Paranoid Style in American Politics" (1964)

Hofstadter's essay and other materials about conspiracy theories can be found on the website of Dr. Kenneth A. Rahn, Sr.  See especially The Academic JFK Assassination Site and Nonconspiracists United.