It’s my view that OBL would dearly love Dubya to get installed a second time. Both these guys inhabit binary, good versus evil, worlds. Both have their egos continually stroked by agenda-led courtiers convincing them that they are the tribe’s last, best and only hope of ultimate triumph. They are each other’s best and worst enemies. Together, they give terror synergy. Apart, it is diminished.
I think the video will contribute to OBL’s wish being fulfilled just as it is intended to. The fact that he is still ‘out there’, still free to make videos and command airtime barely registers as a problem or as a sign of failure. For the US he’s the face of evil, for his side, the US is the Great Satan. The medium is the message.
As for supporting Kerry, I reckon the only thing OBL could do is to show some of the Bush-Bin Laden holiday snaps from his family album and play up the closeness of the two dynasties. But it wouldn’t work. Being ‘born-again’ gives Dubya the ‘I used to be a sinner but look at me now’ get out every time. Perfect deniability. Better than Teflon.
As an aside, there’s a dimension to the Bush-Kerry race for power that I never see reported but that seems to me to be right at its heart: Dubya is president right now on account of being called Bush. (It’s delusional even to contemplate this not being the case.) If the Bush name’s POSIWID is to continue there’s no option but for him to get the job again. To have two one-term Bushes – Daddy 41 and Junior 43 – would reveal the dynasty as fatally flawed. The plutocracy wouldn’t like that. Nor would the next wave of Bushes. When it comes to securing the succession there can be no failure whatever the price.