Showing posts with label indeterminacy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label indeterminacy. Show all posts

Saturday, January 06, 2007

Strange Career Move 2

The other day I commented on Negroponte's strange career move. This has also prompted comment on the Duck of Minerva blog. Rodger Payne recalls a previous instance in which Negroponte left a high-status job for an apparently lower-status role sorting out Iraq. 

Repetition is a strong clue in a POSIWID world. Whenever something happens more than once, this is an indication that there is some system at work - although it isn't always clear which system it is.

The Duck of Minerva focuses on International Relations and Foreign Policy, and seem to operate a political worldview that seeks to explain motivation in terms of status and influence. But there are alternative worldviews, from which we can see other possible motives for someone getting involved in Iraq at this time. 

An economist might observe that there is a lot more loose money sloshing around Iraq than in the uptight bureaucracies of New York and Washington. Some people are motivated by the opportunity to get their hands on some extra cash, and other people are motivated by righteous indignation and the desire to expose corruption.

An organizational theorist might comment on the dysfunctional and frustrating nature of certain institutions, and express surprise that any normal person would ever choose to work in them, regardless of the status. And there is sometimes more autonomy (= job satisfaction?) at the edge of an organization than in the centre. 

And a psychologist might cite Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs - self-actualization is higher than esteem. So there are many different ways of accounting for a single event - different effects therefore different purposes.

 

Wikipedia: Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

Thursday, January 04, 2007

Strange Career Move

John Negroponte is leaving his job as Director of National Intelligence to become Deputy Secretary of State. [BBC News, 4th January 2007

This move is causing some speculation in the blogosphere. Why did Negroponte switch jobs? asks Susan UnPC on NoQuarter. Is this a demotion or an intelligent move? asks Peter Howard on the Duck of Minerva blog, while Dan Drezner puts it down to Condoleezza Rice's powers of persuasion

It is interesting to see how different analysts frame the question in terms of different effects ...

... on Negroponte's personal status in Washington ... on Negroponte's personal accountability for future disaster ... on the Intelligence community and leadership ... on the diplomacy skills and experience within Rice's team ... on Iraq

 ... and speculate about the meaning of the move. Is this a signal that Negroponte is in or out of favour? Is this a signal that Rice is strong or weak? Is this a signal that the intelligence community is in trouble? Who is actually pulling the strings? 

Note the indeterminacy of POSIWID here. Once you have chosen which effects you want to analyse, then the analysis may seem to lead to certain interpretations and conclusions. But POSIWID doesn't tell you where to look first - which effects of which system.

Update: In a later post (The Other Shoes Drop), Peter Howard points out that Negroponte's move is part of a much larger reshuffling of Bush's Iraq team. This again highlights the problem of knowing which system to look at first. Our perceptions may be influenced by the (accidental? fortuitous?) sequence with which the moves are announced or leaked. 

(Peter suggests we need a program to keep up with who is going where. I assume he means software program - in UK English we have the advantage of two different spellings programme/program. I don't know what the software would do, but a graphic diagram would be nice.) 

Next post: Strange Career Move 2 (January 2007)